Category: Analysis

Comet C/2022 E3 – Conjunction with Mars

February 9 – 12 2023

The night sky is pretty much a mystery to most City Dwellers. The glare of city light drowns out all but the brightest stars – and planets don’t do much better. If you are interested, I can tell you where to look to see these far-off worlds. If you were not interested, you would have stopped reading after the first sentence.

Read this first: https://www.timeanddate.com/astronomy/measuring-the-sky-by-hand.html

There is an “eyes only” comet currently in the Northern Hemisphere skies that will soon be near Mars.

As many of us urban dwellers can attest, “eyes only” means other people can see it.

However, if “Seeing” is good and a good reference body is to be had, binocular-equipped viewers in the worst of urban glare may well be able to pick out the comet in about two weeks and change.

Below is a sky chart from the point of view of Houston observers for February 10, 2023. Since Mars moves slowly through the sky, this will suffice to show the relative positions of the constellations and Mars for the four-day period I am analyzing here. The chart is calculated at 2200 (8 PM CDT) and everything will be moving to the West (right) until things start setting in the West, around 1 or 2 AM. All images credit: Heavens-Above.com

Once you have located Mars, get out those binoculars – or use those keen eyes if you are in dark skies. Use the dated charts below to find where to look for the Comet.

Contact me with any questions: steve.campbell@reagan.com

Hasta Luego,

Steve</b>

The Great Hurricane Absence

By Steve Campbell

This article was originally published in American Thinker on October 7, 2017. I see that in AT’s archive, my article has lost its graphics – which were a major part of the story. I am reprinting the article now (Sept. 28, 2022) because of the recent Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and the unprofessional, unscientific and untruthful reporting of same by the Global Warming Press.

______________________________

You will see story after story in the news about how hurricanes are stronger and more frequent. They will tell you that Harvey and Irma are the worst-ever storms and are unprecedented. They will scare up the looming threat of “Global Warming” as if it were a proven fact. They will say that Al Gore predicted this a decade ago in his movie An Inconvenient Truth (2006).

Do not be fooled. That is all a lie. While Harvey and Irma were devastating, they were far from “the worst”. Global Warming has proven to be a myth. Al Gore was dead wrong then and now. What Gore predicted was the exact opposite of what happened. Hurricanes are right now less frequent and milder on average than they were when Vice President Al Gore made that movie.

The data on hurricanes is widely and freely available. So, there is no excuse for the panic-mongering regarding this subject.

The “Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)” index is calculated by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Accumulated Cyclone Energy — An index that combines the numbers of systems, how long they existed and how intense they became. It is calculated by squaring the maximum sustained surface wind in the system every six hours that the cyclone is a Named Storm and summing it up for the season. It is expressed in 104 kt2.

This is basically a measure of seasonal hurricane strength as it varies from year to year and should definitively answer the question of whether hurricanes are stronger and more frequent, or not.

The chart below shows the data for 1985 to 2016:

Accumulated Cyclone Energy 1985 to 2016

While there was indeed a peak in 2005, the index has been substantially less – not only in the actual year of Al Gore’s movie debut, but also in every year since then.

To address the frequency of hurricanes, let us examine another NOAA dataset.

The graph below shows the number of days between major hurricane landfalls in the United States. Major Hurricanes are defined as category 3,4 or 5.

Days Between Landfall of Major Hurricanes in the U.S. Credit NOAA

You see that the dates of the original graph (produced by Roger Pielke Jr.) were from 1900 to June 15, 2017. A new record gap between storms had occurred at that time. This author has added (the orange parts) the intervening time to show the end of the Great Hurricane Absence. You see that this gap (nearly twelve years) is almost twice as long as the previous record in 1900. The “trend” (red line) is now toward slightly longer gaps between storms. i.e., Strong hurricanes are less frequent now.

The IPCC’s website defines their purpose:

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the international body for assessing the science related to climate change… The main activity of the IPCC is to provide at regular intervals Assessment Reports of the state of knowledge on climate change. The latest one is the Fifth Assessment Report which was finalized in November 2014.

With that in mind, here is the IPCC’s statement on hurricane frequency:

IPCC AR5 (2013) Working Group I, Chapter 2

Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century … No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin.

The deadliest hurricane in American history was the 1900 storm in Galveston, Texas. Speaking from my own family’s oral history:

My great-grandfather Ben was visiting his brother in Galveston when all were trapped by a rising storm surge that reached the attic of the two-story house before it broke apart. Ben was washed across Galveston Bay to Hitchcock, Texas in the midst of that devastating tempest. By then, Ben had lost his brother and all his brother’s family, who died along with six to ten thousand others on the island and the mainland (Galveston had less than 38,000 inhabitants at the time). Ben barely survived by clinging to a wooden bedstead while being torn by building debris with lots of exposed nails.

Ben told his tale and showed his horrible scars to his little granddaughter who later told her son – that’s me. This makes the 1900 storm very real to this author.

Now that you have the real story, read and watch as the alarmists try to tell you that Harvey or Irma is the worst storm ever and these hundred-year storms are happening every year.

You can tell them of the “Great Hurricane Absence” and show them these graphs. You can quote the IPCC, a group founded to study (allegedly objectively) the idea of manmade climate change. You can tell them that the deadliest hurricane in American history was the 1900 storm in Galveston, Texas.

When you tell the alarmists, they will not believe you because it does not fit their narrative of “Global Warming.” To them, nothing that happened before they were born was real. And nothing since then that does not fit their myth, is fact.

KBO 2014 MU69 – Post Conference

Foreword January 2021

As a lifelong Astronomy Nerd (perhaps not at birth, but not long after) I cannot help but notice how Planetary Science has advanced over the last half century. To say that much has been discovered is a ridiculous understatement. This theme of Solar System Astronomy can also be noticed in my other Categories (Comets, Planets, Asteroids, Urban Astronomy, Science and occasionally even in Going Walkabout, Energy, One Climate Fact and Humor*.

*These are the collections behind those icons on my homepage at Goingwalkabout.blog.

This is the sequel to my earlier post Kuiper Belt Object 2014 MU69

As related below the body now officially named 486958 Arrokoth was indeed described and analyzed at the 50^th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference in 2019.

Prolog – March 2019

As expected, the LPSC has revealed much greater detail about the Kuiper Belt Object 2014 MU69 (A.K.A. Ultima Thule)

The flyby of this Kuiper Belt Object was declared a 100% success by the Principal Investigator Alan Stern. The closest approach was at about one fourth the distance as the previous KBO encounter with Pluto. This is not surprising when the new target is comparable to a small mountain on Pluto. That, and the fact that the velocity of the probe is about seven miles per second (yes, per second) complicates the task. Other compounding circumstances were the light level comparable to a moonlit night on Earth, a spacecraft design that does not allow continuous contact and a download rate that is agonizingly slow. As discussed earlier these were design trade-offs that made a long, difficult exploration effort possible – and quite successful – on a limited budget.

At the time of the Special Session at the LPSC, it had been 80 days since the encounter and considerable data had been received. However, more than a year separates us from the completion of that transmission. The state of knowledge at this time was summed up by the PI in the first presentation and those items are presented below along with details filled in by the presenters that followed.

Post-flyby Observations

An earlier comparison to a “snowman” shape were based only on a 2D view. Both the bodies that makeup this contact binary are thinner in the third dimension. The larger one (now popularly called “Ultima”) is actually shaped more like a thick hamburger patty. The smaller body (Thule) is more nearly spherical, but still visibly “flattened”. This is not unprecedented. There is a moon orbiting Saturn called Hyperion that has a similar shape to Ultima’s.

As promised, the resolution now available is greatly improved. The panel below is a stereo “cross-eyed” view. It takes a bit of practice, but it is possible to focus the left eye on the right image and vice-versa to get a clear and vivid 3-D view that appears between the two. Sit up straight and view with no tilt on the image. Hold your head very still and adjust by tilting slightly right or left. It should resolve into a clear and quite impressive 3-D image. I find it works best, with minimal eye-strain at about 2 feet (about 60 cm) away.

Figure 1: Raw images of the contact binary MU69. These are from the LORRI instrument and therefore lack the red coloring or the previous, low resolution image. Credit: NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory/Southwest Research Institute.

Other observations:

The crater on the smaller body (Thule) is seen to be quite deep. It may be an impact feature, but no one has dared to unambiguously claim so. Other craters may have been caused by faulting, perhaps during the merger. None of the few craters seen can definitely said to be caused by impact.
A comparison was made to Phobos, the greater moon of Mars, and its biggest crater named Stickney. The two bodies are roughly the same size. Phobos is one of the darkest objects in the inner solar system and in that sense, also very similar to Thule. See Figure 2 for a side-by-side images.

Figure 2: Left: MU69-B (Thule) and Crater “Missouri” Right: Martian Moon Phobos and Stickney Crater

Credit: NASA

Sidebar

Phobos and the lesser moon of Mars, Deimos were discovered by American astronomer Asaph Hall in 1877. Hall was about to abandon his search for Martian moons, but was convinced to struggle on by his wife, Professor Chloe Angeline Stickney Hall.

Somewhere in the vast body of writings by Issac Azimov (and almost certainly somewhere in the shelves and piles of ancient paperbacks I still possess – and have forbidden my wife from recycling) is told the anecdote about a presentation wherein the speaker related this story and hoped – that when Phobos was ultimately imaged – a major feature might be named for the mathematician, suffragist and abolitionist who would not let Hall give up the search in which he ultimately succeeded. When the presenter (who may well have been Azimov, himself) admitted his ignorance of her name, an attendee stood up and shouted, “Angeline Stickney” (for she did not use her first name). And, in the fullness of time, it came to pass that the crater that dominates the surface of Phobos is so named.

More Points about 2014MU69 / Ultima Thule

Bright spots tend to be in low zones. Troughs and mounds are clearly discernable.
The merger of these two bodies into one was determined to be a “gentle one”. In the distant realm of the Kuiper Belt, and especially among the “Cold Classical”, objects that find themselves near each other tend to be moving with the same velocities. Willian McKinnon described this method of simulating the velocity of merger: “Walk into a wall”.
No satellites were detected. Nor was there any detectable atmosphere.
This may be because any satellites there might have been would have been ejected from orbit during the “merger” process.
It is my (your humble narrator) own interpretation (2021) that this system once consisted of five or six main bodies – all orbiting in the same plane – that were slowly accumulated onto the larger of the two. And then the accumulated “hamburger patty” (whose shape indicates the co-planar rotation IMHO) and the smaller body finally merged. Tidal stresses in orbiting bodies tend to slow down the mutual rotation – thus bringing them all together.
The period of rotation has been pinned down to 15.9 hours.

What’s Next?

The New Horizons spacecraft probably has enough fuel to re-direct to another Kuiper Belt Object. There is not yet a target body known to be in reach and Ultima Thule was found at the limits of the Space Telescope capability. It is expected that the probe’s own long-range imager (LORRI) will be the instrument to find the next destination. It is estimated that one more target will be the last possible. There is no hurry, however, since the probe will be in the Kuiper Belt until 2027 or so.

See NASA video about MU69/Arrokoth

https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/fly-by-of-mu69

Ex Sciencia, Trivia,

Steve

Uber Alley – Marooned in Houston

On July 13, I had to drop a passenger at a Timewise (or some other sort of convenience store/gas station) and refund her partial fare. I couldn’t very well charge her $4.80 for abandoning her to call another Uber – while still 12 miles from her destination.

I had somehow managed to vaporize most of the coolant and the remaining liquid boiled out the reservoir when I opened it. I had to buy and pour in a $14 jug of overpriced coolant. NOBODY has water at a gas station anymore – even for money. Unless you count the drinking water they sell in bottles. As it turns out, I should have bought that, because later, I managed to boil off the coolant again and be left dry and overheated. The Culligan water bottles would have worked out be to less of a loss.

The problem is not the thermostat – as I had imagined – but the water pump. Water pumps are typically mounted where they can be driven with a belt. They are normally a half-hour (and under $100) job to replace. But this particular water pump is driven by the timing chain – not by a belt. And the timing chain is sealed inside the lubrication system. So, when the water pump begins to leak, it spills coolant directly into the engine oil. That can quickly destroy an engine if not corrected.

Figure 1: Here, the timing chain cover (that seals the water pump inside the lubrication system) has been removed.

You may also notice that to get this image, the author had to photograph an engine that has been removed from the automobile. I am told that it is possible to change the water pump without removing the engine – but that it might be easier to yank that sucker out! In either case, it is expensive – very expensive.

You might ask yourself (as I did) “What were they thinking?”

And see, now? You have – as I did – assumed that the jackass Ford engineers – who thought this up – were actually thinking.

This is an egregious imbecility that will cost hundreds of millions of dollars to the vehicle owners. Ford was being sued in a class-action that is currently dismissed.

A quote from carcomplaints.com

February 15, 2020
— A Ford Duratec lawsuit has been dismissed, but the plaintiffs may have another shot to prove their allegations in court.
According to the Duratec engine lawsuit, millions of 2007-present Ford vehicles are equipped with the allegedly defective water pumps that cause engine damage.
The Duratec engines allegedly fail because coolant mixes with engine oil once the coolant leaks from the water pumps. The plaintiffs claim the engines may fail without drivers having any warning of the impending doom.
____________________.
Judge Laurie J. Michelson says she still finds the plaintiffs haven’t shown she made a mistake by dismissing the lawsuit, but the judge says she will reconsider her decision to dismiss the case with prejudice. Once all parties have presented their arguments, the judge will decide if the plaintiffs can file a second amended lawsuit.
carcomplaints.com

So, an expensive team of lawyers might be able to try again and see if they can come up with something the judge might like better. You gonna pay for that? Nope. Me, neither,

Please notice that they have been building engines this way since 2007. If you have ever in your life worked on a car engine, you know this is an irrational thing to do to an engine design and the fact that this happened in the first place is grievously irresponsible. The fact that – once discovered – it was not corrected is unacceptable.

The result is that the Explorer that I depend on for my livelihood seven days a week is now sidelined for at least three days – probably more. And the cost of replacing a water pump has gone from two figures to four. Tack on the lost Uber fairs and the cost will exceed a month’s revenue from the Ride-Sharing Business of which I am now the proprietor. Revenue – not profit. To clear enough profit to cover this setback will take so long that I prefer to drop the subject right now, rather than calculate same.

Hasta Luego,

Steve

The Truth About Hiroshima

Steve Campbell August 6, 2019

Hiroshima has a secret. While it was well known at the time of the city’s sudden rise to fame, it is all but lost in modern times.

Hiroshima is a grim lesson in the nature of war. The truth of that city has been suppressed from the history of the definitive conflict to salvage world freedom. A conflict that was fought by our progenitors – in your humble narrator’s case, only a single generation removed – who have been slandered by revisionists as war criminals.

Atomic vs. Conventional

First, the revisionists pretend that the war could have been won without the atomic bomb. That concept is proven to be a fallacy simply by the fact that the atomic bomb was indeed used and victory was not forthcoming. It took two bombs before surrender was attained.

It is certain that the war could have been continued with conventional weapons. There was already a campaign of firebombing military targets, which were mostly in 67 crowded cities (the Japanese freely intermingled military and civilian activity) ongoing before the atomic bombs became available. A single such raid on Tokyo was thought to have killed 100,000 and made 375,000 homeless. Civilian and military deaths and injuries had already exceeded that of the ultimate atomic casualties and further conventional warfare would undoubtedly have sent those numbers far higher had that continued. A ground invasion would have been next. It is left to the reader to imagine the toll on both Japanese and US personnel.

And suppose that it was discovered — after the carnage — that Harry Truman had been in command of a weapon that could have ended that extended conflict with only two single-bomber missions – and did not use it? Can we imagine the outrage of the population of the US when that little tidbit came to public light? Why, they would have had called for Truman’s execution!

Military vs. Civilian Targets

Second, there is a contention that Hiroshima, et al, were civilian targets. Truth is, Hiroshima was home to a munitions factory, an aircraft parts factory and one of the largest military bases in the Japanese Empire. Hiroshima was also a staging port for moving troops by sea. The garrison there was forty thousand and at any given time there were perhaps thousands more in transit to deployment. Nevertheless, civilians (including women and children) were mandated employees at the war factories.

Quoting:

From: August 6, 2005, The Asahi Shimbun Newspaper Morning Edition:

“The population of Hiroshima at the time was about 310,000, plus 40,000 military and 20,000 daytime workers…The entire Second Japanese Army was destroyed to a man…”

“Sixteen hours ago, an American airplane dropped one bomb on Hiroshima, an important Japanese Army base”. – Quoting U.S. President Harry Truman – August 7, 1945

“About 150 eighth graders of Hiroshima Prefectural Daiichi Junior High School (present-day Prefectural Kokutaiji High School), who were contributing to the war effort by working in an aircraft parts manufacturing factory…”

“Kiyoko Yoshida was in fourth year at a girl’s high school when she was exposed to the A-bomb while working at a munitions factory.”

Nagasaki was similarly a military target as was Kokura, the secondary target in the first bombing and the primary — but cloud-covered — target in the second).

Warnings

Also in the arsenal of the revisionists is the accusation that the Japanese people were not warned of their pending fate. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Shortly before the US dropped two atomic bombs on Japan, the United Stated showered the Japanese cities of Hiroshima, Kokura, Nagasaki and 33 other potential targets with over 5 million leaflets warning civilians of the impending attack.

In Japanese, the leaflet read:

“Read this carefully as it may save your life or the life of a relative or friend. In the next few days, some or all of the cities named on the reverse side will be destroyed by American bombs. These cities contain military installations and workshops or factories which produce military goods. We are determined to destroy all of the tools of the military clique which they are using to prolong this useless war. But, unfortunately, bombs have no eyes. So, in accordance with America’s humanitarian policies, the American Air Force, which does not wish to injure innocent people, now gives you warning to evacuate the cities named and save your lives. America is not fighting the Japanese people but is fighting the military clique which has enslaved the Japanese people. The peace which America will bring will free the people from the oppression of the military clique and mean the emergence of a new and better Japan. You can restore peace by demanding new and good leaders who will end the war. We cannot promise that only these cities will be among those attacked but some or all of them will be, so heed this warning and evacuate these cities immediately. “

An American-controlled radio station on Saipan was broadcasting a similar message to the Japanese people every 15 minutes. Five days after the fliers were distributed, Hiroshima was destroyed by the “Little Boy” atomic device. Following the first attack, the U.S. Army Air Forces dropped even more leaflets:

“America asks that you take immediate heed of what we say on this leaflet.
We are in possession of the most destructive explosive ever devised by man. A single one of our newly developed atomic bombs is actually the equivalent in explosive power to what 2000 of our giant B-29s can carry on a single mission. This awful fact is one for you to ponder and we solemnly assure you it is grimly accurate.
We have just begun to use this weapon against your homeland. If you still have any doubt, make inquiry as to what happened to Hiroshima when just one atomic bomb fell on that city.
Before using this bomb to destroy every resource of the military by which they are prolonging this useless war, we ask that you now petition the Emperor to end the war. Our president has outlined for you the thirteen consequences of an honorable surrender. We urge that you accept these consequences and begin the work of building a new, better and peace-loving Japan.
You should take steps now to cease military resistance. Otherwise, we shall resolutely employ this bomb and all our other superior weapons to promptly and forcefully end the war.”

Conclusions

The Japanese were not prepared to surrender – before or after the first atomic bomb.
Hiroshima, Nagasaki and Kokura, et al. were home to military targets of great strategic value. The sad fact is that the Japanese had placed military installations in cities and “drafted” women and children to work in war plants in those cities.
The Japanese were warned repeatedly — clearly and simply in their own language — that the US had mighty weapons and intended to use them to end the war.

Bibliography:

Hiroshima, garrison and war industry: http://www.ww2pacific.com/hiroshima.html

August 6, 2005, The Asahi Shimbun Newspaper Morning Edition: http://www.asahi.com/hibakusha/english/shimen/happened/happened-01-2.html

The Grim Lessons of Charles Whitman

stevetrucker2

This article was first published in American Thinker on March 15, 2018

By Steve Campbell

The era of mass public shootings began with Charles Whitman in 1966. He taught us all we need to know to prevent or minimize such events. We ignored his lessons.

On August first of that year, Whitman rode the elevator to the top of the Clock Tower at the University of Texas at Austin. He rolled a hand truck along with him that carried a footlocker full of guns and ammunition. Soon after ensued the first mass murder in a public place in modern America.

Texas Monthly Magazine published an in-depth story for the 40th anniversary of this episode in American history. It is entitled “96 Minutes” – you know why. It contains many quotes from individuals who were there or were immediately affected by those events. If, after you read that, Whitman’s Lessons are not then apparent, then come back and read on, because those lessons are here named and explained. Unless otherwise indicated the quotes in this article are from 96 Minutes.

I. There will be warnings.

Whitman sought out psychiatric help. He mentioned that the Tower would be a great place from which to shoot people.

From the note he left behind:

“I have been fighting my mental turmoil alone, and seemingly to no avail. After my death I wish that an autopsy would be performed on me to see if there is any visible physical disorder[.] … Maybe research can prevent further tragedies of this type.”

II. There are reasons.

This type of behavior does not occur at random. People see trouble coming, but they don’t imagine the magnitude of consequences.

“Was it his abusive childhood? His overwhelming anger? The amphetamines he consumed, observed one friend, “like popcorn”?”

This reporter has seen his type a few times before. There are tales of more. They go along, these amphetamine addicts, energetic and good-natured, until they explode. To reinforce that anecdotal information, the reader is encouraged to research the term “amphetamine psychosis.”

Charles Whitman was:

“… a good son, a top Boy Scout, an excellent Marine, an honor student, a hard worker, a loving husband, a fine scout master, a handsome man, a wonderful friend to all who knew him – and an expert sniper.”

He himself recognized the symptoms (but not the cause) and asked for help that never arrived. One might doubt that the danger was known at the time. A bit of research turned this up:

… a letter by P.H. Connell published in the British Medical Journal on March 9, 1957 …

“[a] common result of amphetamine intoxication is the development of a paranoid psychosis indistinguishable from schizophrenia, during which the patient may be a serious social danger,” he wrote.

III. Help will not be in time to save you.

“In the absence of any visible police presence, students decided to defend themselves.”

The police were armed with revolvers and shotguns. Neither was effective against an enemy atop a 300-foot tower shooting over a chest-high wall.

The populace of U.T. and Austin in 1966 was an armed society. These people felt every right to defend themselves, and they did so in numbers. Among civilians, students and police were those who owned high-powered rifles, many with scopes for long-range targeting. Within 20 minutes, they began to return fire on Whitman, who was forced to give up his place shooting over the wall and from then on shot only through the drain holes at the base of the deck.

In the seventy-odd minutes after that, only one more fatality occurred. When the Tower deck was “stormed” by two police officers, backed up by a volunteer, Whitman was on the deck, with his rifle’s barrel through a drain hole. While he was furiously reversing the rifle out to shoot these “intruders,” officers responded with a revolver and a shotgun. Those turned out to be effective after all – at close range.

Had Whitman been standing to shoot over the wall and undistracted by return fire, it might have been a very different story. Thanks, armed society!

IV. Do not dwell on the tragedy.

This one is not immediately obvious.

In the aftermath, don’t glorify or name the shooter. Don’t dwell on the event. It might be best to just shut up about it – perhaps for many years. Excess attention to the event makes it, in some twisted minds, an exaltation of the actions of the maniac, and that seems to promote similar events. It is known that the publication of suicide stories is a stimulus for more suicides. That once kept people from publishing such stories. The incident was not spoken of much.

A similar event did not occur until 1984 in San Ysidro, California. Another disturbed individual went on a rampage in a fast food restaurant. Among civilians, nobody shot back at all. The police did have a Special Weapons and Tactics (SWAT) team, which arrived only after the majority of deaths had occurred. Whitman’s Third Lesson had been ignored, and the shooter had managed to kill 21 and wound 19 others.

The San Ysidro perpetrator had called a mental health clinic and said he had a problem on the day before the event. He made an “offhand” comment about hunting humans on the morning of the incident. Whitman’s First Lesson was ignored as well.

Was the 18-year gap a result of the reluctance to talk about Whitman? Perhaps. Whitman’s Fourth Lesson could be said to have been postulated that day. Ensuing years seem to have confirmed it – in a negative and tragic way – as the rhetoric about shooting incidents increased and the gaps between such incidents shortened.

The current state of affairs: Paralysis

There have been more and more arms restrictions and regulation. The role of defenders has been taken away from the people and deposited with SWAT teams. Has it improved the situation? Not at all!

Perpetrators are being spotted in advance, but their actions and words are ignored by the very authorities charged with defending the public. Schools are institutionally disarmed and advertised as such. Crimes that would disqualify perpetrators from purchasing weapons under existing laws are not being prosecuted. And some of these shooters seem to have been taking drugs with dangerous side-effects.

So how would we solve these problems?

Let’s take the first two together.

The warning and the reason

The answer would have been to take Whitman’s Warning seriously and help him to give up his speed habit. Medical science knew the reason, even if Whitman himself did not. If someone had described the problem to him, he might have cooperated with the solution – he wanted to get better!

Don’t wait for help

They didn’t. How many were saved by the return fire is uncertain, but it is unquestionably “many.” The armed society also – albeit unknowingly – paved the way for the final assault on Whitman’s “fortress.”

Your defense is your responsibility. Blaming others is denial. That you were unprepared is tragic, regrettable, forgivable, even understandable – but not correctable.

The stark reality of Whitman’s Third Lesson is this: the best way to deal with a mass shooter is to aim your own gun and shoot back. Even if you miss, you may save lives.

That last thing

What shall we call it? Forbearance? Discretion? Responsibility? Don’t talk so much? If mere chronology is any indicator, keeping quiet about Whitman perhaps delayed for 18 years a repeat of the situation. These days, not a year seems to pass without one, while the media analyze and accuse for as long as ratings persist.

Perhaps there is a time to shut up about the subject?

Steve Campbell attended the University of Texas at Austin some years after the Whitman Event. See his writings at Goingwalkabout.blog.