Category: One Fact

One Climate Fact – Introduction

stevetrucker2   Homepage GoingwalkaboutMorseSkinnypng
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    Once, I accepted – without examination – the idea that human activities might cause Global Warming.
   A Geologist colleague did not debate me, but rather challenged me to research the topic and come to an informed  conclusion.
   He was right and I am a Geophysicist with the tools, talent and temperament to do such  research.  That was over twenty years ago and I have since “done the math”, “paid my dues”, “done the due diligence” and examined the facts.
   My conclusion is that the idea of Man-made climate change is a political fiction.
   If I can get people to sit still and listen to me present the facts for an hour or so, I can show them (with facts, charts, graphs, data, references and quotes) exactly how I came to that conclusion.  That has happened a few times.  But, most people do not or will not willingly sit in a room and listen to a lecture.  It’s too much like going to school and they spent a large fraction of their youth doing that and most of them don’t want anything to do with further such activity.
   So, I have come up with this idea.  Take ONE FACT about the subject and present it with clarity and completeness.  Then, do that again with another fact.
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The Grand Ice Age

SteveTrucker2    DreamVacations OneClimateFact 

Not long ago, one of my Road Trip Interest Group members (you know who you are) asked this question:

“When was the last Ice Age?”

The term “Ice Age” is somewhat ambiguous. Fluctuations in the Earth’s climate are extreme and take place over many periods of time.  There have been eras when the Earth was completely devoid of ice.  There have been other times when all the Earth’s oceans had completely turned to ice.  So, when was the last “Ice Age”?

The most recent time that has been referred to that name was the “Little Ice Age”(LIA).  When exactly that was depends on who you ask.  The chart below defines the LIA as being between the years 1400 and 1800 AD.  This was a time that saw mountain villages in Europe consumed by glaciers.  The “Frost Fairs” on the frozen River Thames in London happened at these times and the story of Hans Brinker, likewise.  There is ample evidence of the LIA in art, literature and history.   Below is a graph of results for last two millenia of proxy derived temperature differences.  You see the Little Ice Age as well as what came before.

Timespan:  2000 Years

MWP_LIA
Figure 1: The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA).

These are differences in temperatures derived from examination of cylinders of ice drilled out of an ice sheet. Where that zero axis falls depends on how much time is included in the graph.  So, these data do not tell us what a thermometer would have said then.  But, the historical record tells us that during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) Greenland was occupied by an agricultural civilization where none at that level of technology would be possible in today’s climate.  In Alaska there are glaciers that have retreated from the Little Ice Age and uncovered immense tree-stumps still rooted in the ground.  There are no such climax forests there today.

mendenhall_Tree_Stumps
Thousand-year-old tree stump uncovered by the Mendenhall Glacier’s retreat from the Little Ice Age

They date to about one thousand years ago.  So, we know for a fact that the temperatures were warmer then than now.  There are some who imagine that this was only the case for the North Atlantic.  But, Alaska is not on the Atlantic, is it?  And ice cores from Antarctica tell pretty much the same story.

The time before the LIA was much warmer than the climate today.  The MWP was, itself just another in a series of warm periods, starting with the Minoan Warm Period and occurring roughly every 1000 years.  Below is a graph of oxygen-Isotope proxy temperature anomalies.

Timespan: 11,000 years. 

GISP_Holocene_Anotated_NO_CO2
Figure 2.  Greenland Ice Sheet Project (GISP) temperature differences derived from ice cores.

The last “Ice Age”  (without the “Little” modifier) is to be seen at the extreme left of the Holocene graph in figure 2. It is more accurately referred to as a “Glaciation” and is a part of a (roughly) one-hundred thousand-year oscillation of extreme cold followed by short periods (10,000 years or less) of warm weather.  This cycle is revealed, among other places – in the Vostok and EPICA Ice Core Projects in Antarctica.

Timespan 450,000 years

EPICA_VOSTOK_Annotated
Figure 3.  Antarctic Ice-core derived temperature differences.

You see that our current situation is an “Interglacial” age called the Holocene Climate Optimum that comes after the “Ice Age” (Glaciation). The Eemian which came before that Glaciation is another Interglacial in a long series of same, stretching back half a million years – at least.  The Holocene appears to be significantly cooler than the previous Interglacials – all of them.  (Put that in your “Global Warming” pipe and smoke it! 😉 )

While the future is not yet determined, it looks very much like the Holocene is about over and the next Glaciation is soon to be expected.

But, in all of this, there is still ice at the poles and on mountaintops.  The Glaciations seem to be the rule and the “Interglacials”, the exceptions.  Could we not say that the entire timespan above was a part of a larger “Grand Ice Age” with only the interglacial times interrupting?

What happens if we widen the time span?  Below is a graph of ocean sediment-derived temperatures.

Timespan: Five Million Years.

Five_Myr_Climate_ChangeAnnote
Figure 4.  Temperature differences derived from ocean sediments

The fact that those hundred-thousand-year cycles of the previous graph are seen lends credibility to this “proxy” of temperature.  Notice those thousand-century cycles are a recent phenomenon (relatively speaking) and followed a period of 41,000 year cycles.  Before that was a much warmer time.  There is fossil evidence that those were times when there was little or no ice on Earth at all.

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-12378934

Be warned that they will bring up “Global Warming” even though they can’t point to five-million-year-old Ford Explorers or make any reasonable defense of “Man-made Global Warming”.   -Steve

Quote about Antarctica:

“She recalled: “We were high up on glaciated peaks when we found a sedimentary layer packed full of fragile leaves and twigs.”

“These fossils proved to be remains of stunted bushes of beech. At only three to five million years old, they were some of the last plants to have lived on the continent before the deep freeze set in.”

The “deep freeze” referred to is when we live now!  

WELCOME TO THE GRAND ICE AGE!

It may surprise you to learn that you have been here all along.

Hasta Luego,

Steve

The Holocene Climate Optimum

HoloceneCO2andTemp homepage     Portfolio

Steve Campbell     November 2015

Introduction

The Earth’s Natural History is a rich and complex chronicle of Geology, Astronomy, Chemistry and Biology. These Sciences and others tell us of times of massive volcanism, relentless bombardment from space and frigid periods where almost all the water on the surface of the Earth became frozen out. I want to focus on the most recent era, the time that has nurtured our particular species to the extent that we became able to explore and study the world around us.

It is a little-known fact that we live in a Grand Ice Age, which began about 40 million years ago. Between Grand Ice Ages are times when there is no ice on Earth, except perhaps on artic mountaintops. Those periods last from 50 to 150 million years. The Grand Ice Ages are periods in the Earth’s History when there are actually ice caps at the poles. These ages last for 60 to 200 million years. During those Grand Ice Ages there are short-period fluctuations.

There are cold periods, called “Glaciations” lasting about 80 to 100 thousand years. The last one of those is what is now called “The Ice Age” – as if there were no others. This is when glaciers grew down from the North to cover what is now about the Northern third of the United States. The Great Lakes, along with the 10,000 lakes of Minnesota and the 100,000 of Saskatchewan are artifacts of that era, being scoured basins made by glaciers. The Glaciations are in turn, separated by warm periods (Inter-glacials) that last about 10 thousand years. The last of these warm periods is called the Holocene. And its Climate is referred to as a Climate Optimum.

The Holocene Climate Optimum

For the last 10,300 years the Climate was relatively stable, while there were warm and cool ages, the trend was mostly flat. It is for that reason that it is called the “Climate Optimum”. Now, however temperatures are departing from that trend and taking another direction. If you think you enthusiastically agree with me, please wait until after you read the next paragraph.

The flat trend I am speaking of is one of warm temperatures. With very few exceptions the entire Holocene was warmer than it is today. The departure from that trend of which I speak is a general cooling that began about 3500 years ago and has, with fluctuations, continued to this very day.

And, how do I know this? Well, there was a great scientific endeavor called the Greenland Ice Sheet Project (GISP) that core-drilled the continental ice sheet to produce a sequence of cylindrical chunks of ice that were sampled for oxygen isotope ratios which are dependent on the temperatures when that ice was first deposited as snow. Later, of course the snow was compressed into ice. Those readings indicated a clear record of temperature changes over many millennia. This is what is called a proxy and it is an accurate one. (1)

There were three upward fluctuations that peaked at (roughly) 1000, 2000 and 3300 years ago that today are called the Medieval, Roman and Minoan Warm Periods, respectively. There were two major downward fluctuations, one after the Roman Warm Period and one after the Medieval. The latter is referred to as the Little Ice Age. In all of the 10,300 years of the Holocene there were cold fluctuations but never such an extended cold period as the Little Ice Age. Today we live in another warm fluctuation that is cooler than the Medieval warm period. It is cooler than the Roman Warm period by about another degree Celsius. The Minoan Warm period was warmer yet. Please see figure A.

HoloceneCO2andTemp

Figure A: GISP temperature calculations during the entirety of the Holocene, with proxy estimates of atmospheric CO2 concentrations from Antarctica.

The alert reader will notice that the CO2 proxy measurements from Antarctica indicate that the temperatures were declining while the CO2 levels were increasing. This is in direct contradiction to the Global Warming narrative that rising CO2 levels mean constantly rising temperatures.

What Will the Future Bring?

There are clear indications in Solar activity that cold periods like the Little Ice Age are a glimpse of what is to come. It is not clear if the next century or so will be just another Little Ice Age or if this is truly the end of the Holocene and the beginning of a new Glaciation. That a new Glaciation will come is not in question, only its timeframe is.

What is clear is that the Holocene is near an end and that it is not the Global Warming Hell-Hole that we have all been told to expect. Global temperatures have been in a flat trend for 19 years. The Global Warming Alarmists have predicted uniformly rising temperatures from 1985. They have been proven wrong, beyond a shadow of a doubt.

And, yet we are bombarded daily by calls to give up our freedom and our personal wealth for the sake of Global Warming. Those who call for such sacrifice are – to say the least – dishonest.

Ninety Percent of the World’s Glaciers are GROWING

SteveTrucker2    Homepage        OneClimateFact

Ninety Percent (90%) of the World’s Glaciers are GROWING

  You have undoubtedly read or heard the panicky, desperate, shrill complaints that “the glaciers are melting” and we need to live in caves and eat organic lettuce to save them.

The warnings are false.  The panic mongers are lying to you.  They like to say that Antarctica’s glaciers are shrinking.  They fail to mention that is only the case mostly on the Antarctic Peninsula and some islands.  They also fail to mention that there is volcanic activity that might account for that.

The opposite is the case in remainder (a very large remainder) of Antarctica.  What you have not heard is that the ice cap there is growing and has been for thousands of years.  That ice cap contains and feeds 90% of the world’s glaciers.

This conclusion is based on 16 years of measured observations (not computer models or “projections”).  The source is NASA.

AntarcticaMapAnoted

Qualified statements, expressed in percentages seem to be a complexity that is beyond the panic mongers.  They must have “blanket”, all-or-nothing declarations.  So, in that spirit, the truth is this:

   “The Glaciers are GROWING!”

Steve

Three Hundred Graphs say “Global Warming” is Bogus

 SteveTrucker2  Homepage   DreamVacations

   A recent article at Climate Depot has painstakingly assembled almost 300 graphs from Peer-reviewed scientific research that disprove the Man-made Global Warming Myth.   Click the following link:

Three Hundred Graphs

   Climate Depot is a project of the Center For A Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT) and is edited by Marc Morano, a steadfast Champion of the Truth about the Climate Change Myth.  I saw him and many other respected authorities speak at a Conference in Houston. My attendance there was a part of my multi-decade research of this subject.  I introduced myself and briefly encouraged Marc to seek out and inform Texas Governor Rick Perry who was also there. 

  http://www.climatedepot.com/

   I mention this not to brag – but only to impress my audience that I am not just repeating talking points like Al Gore, but rather I have been actively involved in research and discussion about this.

Ex Scientia, Veritas

Steve

Global Warming Predictions are Wrong

stevetrucker2   Homepage    OneClimateFact

The entire Alarmist Fraud of Global Warming is based on computer models that predict that temperatures will rise catastrophically as Carbon Dioxide emissions from human activities continue.  This is absurd on the face of it, because:

  1. It ignores the fact that human emissions of CO2 are a tiny fraction of natural emissions from volcanoes, forest fires and the decay of dead plants and animals.
  2. It ignores fluctuations of natural CO2 emissions
  3. It ignores the natural reaction of plants to increased CO2 (i.e., they grow faster and absorb same).

None of these, however, is the One Fact that we are here to discuss, which is:

The computer models that the Alarmists have come up with have been proven WRONG by REALITY.

  

CMIP5-global-LT-vs-UAH-and-RSS 

As the title states these are 44 computer climate models all predicting warming of more than one degree Centigrade by 2025.  The blue and red lines are plots of actual experimental temperature measurements made by satellites and high altitude balloons.  Please notice that with the exception of 1998 (an “El  Niño” year), every year was measured to be in a flat trend – not a catastrophic increase.

Let me quote Renowned Physicist and Acknowledged Genius Dr. Richard Feynman:

  “It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.”

Ladies and Gentlemen: The idea that Human activities are causing the world to warm is WRONG.

One Fact – Sunspots

stevetrucker2 homepage   OneClimateFact

   The Sun is not a featureless orange disk.  At least, it is not yet.  But it will be soon and that will change things, here on Earth.

Peak2001_bigspotfd_prev

   It is a mistake to ignore the Sun, as any beach-goer who has fallen asleep can tell you.  To say that we take the Sun for granted is a big understatement.  People do not think much about the sun because they see it as constant and unchanging.  The Global Warming Political Cult would have you believe that the Sun is so constant that a small change in a trace gas called Carbon Dioxide will somehow super-heat the Earth. 

   But, that fallacy is not the One Fact under discussion here – we are talking about Sunspots.  A lengthy explanation may be found in an article I wrote about the subject (click the link below):

Sunspots

  In the last three cycles, there has been a declining trend in Sunspots.  This has not happened since the early 1800’s and it is an indication that we may expect a general cooling of the Climate for the next 30 years or more.  The cooling is in fact already underway, but it is being hidden by Global Warming Politics (by methods I have described in previous One Fact posts), for obvious reasons.

   I have been telling this story for many years and I encourage you all to research this further.  The internet has made us all Sherlock Holmes – capable of intense investigation and analysis to uncover the truth.  Don’t just believe me.  Please look it up!

  To get you started, I quote a recent article about the subject (click the link below):

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2017/02/democrats_real_global_warming_fraud_revealed.html

 Steve

Changes in Latitude

SteveTrucker2   Homepage   OneClimateFact

   The National Climate Data Center average global temperature graph below demonstrates a method of Scientific Fraud called “Cherry Picking”.  Science is supposed to be about finding the truth.  Sadly, in Climate Science, the goal has lately been to get the desired POLITICAL result.

  These are differences in temperature from some particular value, but the idea is to show changes over time.

   Notice that the average temperatures  in the period between  1930  and 1990 – while fluctuating – were, on average, constant.  Then suddenly, the temperatures showed an abrupt, disturbing upward trend.  These numbers are frequently presented as “proof” of Man-made Global Warming.

  At the same time the count of weather stations in the average (the red line) abruptly fell from about 500 to about 20*.  Not only that, but the average latitude of the stations involved went from 30° (about that of our own Houston) to 20° (about that of Veracruz, Mexico).  I have chosen these two places because they are both near sea level and on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico.  In any reasonable mind, these are comparable in climate, with only their latitude being different.

*I found another chart where those numbers are 6000 and 1500 – I don’t know which is correct, but the difference is still large.

  So, let us examine the average temperatures from Climatemps.com  for Houston and Veracruz in (pick a month) – OK, January:

Average January temperature for Houston, Texas………50° Fahrenheit (10° C.)

Average January temperature for Veracruz, Mexico.…..70° Fahrenheit (21° C)

So, does anyone – ANYONE – out there think that the graph below is a valid indication of Global Temperatures over time?   

ncdc_stationcountaverage