Tag: Science

Global Warming Predictions are Wrong

stevetrucker2   Homepage    OneClimateFact

The entire Alarmist Fraud of Global Warming is based on computer models that predict that temperatures will rise catastrophically as Carbon Dioxide emissions from human activities continue.  This is absurd on the face of it, because:

  1. It ignores the fact that human emissions of CO2 are a tiny fraction of natural emissions from volcanoes, forest fires and the decay of dead plants and animals.
  2. It ignores fluctuations of natural CO2 emissions
  3. It ignores the natural reaction of plants to increased CO2 (i.e., they grow faster and absorb same).

None of these, however, is the One Fact that we are here to discuss, which is:

The computer models that the Alarmists have come up with have been proven WRONG by REALITY.

  

CMIP5-global-LT-vs-UAH-and-RSS
The thin  lines are the computerized “climate models”.  The Thick lines at the bottom  (UAH and RSS) are REALITY

 

As the title states these are 44 computer climate models all predicting warming of more than one degree Centigrade by 2025.  The blue and red lines are plots of actual experimental temperature measurements made by satellites and high altitude balloons.  Please notice that with the exception of 1998 (an “El  Niño” year), every year was measured to be in a flat trend – not a catastrophic increase.

Let me quote Renowned Physicist and Acknowledged Genius Dr. Richard Feynman:

“It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.”

Ladies and Gentlemen: The idea that Human activities are causing the world to warm is WRONG.

Changes in Latitude

SteveTrucker2   Homepage   OneClimateFact

   The National Climate Data Center average global temperature graph below demonstrates a method of Scientific Fraud called “Cherry Picking”.  Science is supposed to be about finding the truth.  Sadly, in Climate Science, the goal has lately been to get the desired POLITICAL result.

  These are differences in temperature from some particular value, but the idea is to show changes over time.

   Notice that the average temperatures  in the period between  1930  and 1990 – while fluctuating – were, on average, constant.  Then suddenly, the temperatures showed an abrupt, disturbing upward trend.  These numbers are frequently presented as “proof” of Man-made Global Warming.

  At the same time the count of weather stations in the average (the red line) abruptly fell from about 5000 to about 300*.  Not only that, but the average latitude of the stations involved went from 30° (about that of our own Houston) to 20° (about that of Veracruz, Mexico).  I have chosen these two places because they are both near sea level and on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico.  In any reasonable mind, these are comparable in climate, with only their latitude being different.

So, let us examine the average temperatures from Climatemps.com  for Houston and Veracruz in (pick a month) – OK, January:

Average January temperature – Houston, Texas …………50° Fahrenheit (10° C.)

Average January temperature for Veracruz, Mexico.….70° Fahrenheit (21° C)

So, does anyone – ANYONE – out there think that the graph below is a valid indication of Global Temperatures over time?

Let’s see a show of hands.  Okay, use that hand to slap some sense into yourself!

StationCountLatitude

 

*I had another chart where those numbers were 500 and 30 – those axis labels turned out to have had the last zeroes cropped off.

The Farthest: Voyager in Space

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Netflicks:  The Farthest: Voyager in Space

TheFarthest

I don’t want to say that young people today are spoiled by modern conveniences – mostly because it makes me sound like a stereotypical curmudgeon.  But, it is absolutely true and it was true for me as well in those long-ago days when I could be described as “young”.  You, too.   And our parents, and theirs and so on, ad infinitum.  There is only one way to make young people appreciate the technological heritage they have.   The progress from a less complex technology to their time has to be described to them by us involuntary immigrants from the past.

Perhaps only an early-adopter “Space Nerd” from the middle Twentieth Century could explain the early days of the exploration of the Solar System.  That would be Your Humble Narrator and I am stepping up on this occasion to review a Netflick Video about that very subject.  I followed the Voyager missions from their launch in 1977 to the flyby of Neptune in 1989 – and beyond.

Before Voyager

Before there was Voyager, the outer planets were only vaguely known.  In 1977 there had been some probes sent to the outer planets – most notably the Mariner and Pioneer probes, which were not insignificant.  But, this documentary is an appreciation of Voyager – the “Game Changer” in Solar System exploration – and its very momentous accomplishments.  It was the most ambitious and significant exploration of the Solar System of that time and the facts and images gathered are a fundamental part of planetary science to this day.

Because Jupiter is the largest and nearest – at “only” five times the Earth’s distance (One Astronomical Unit (AU)) from the Sun – it was the best known.  Even at that, all that was known was some bands of clouds and a “Great Red Spot”.    We knew that Jupiter had four large moons.  Your average Astronomy Nerd – like Your Humble Narrator – could drag the telescope out of the Garage and show you the Bands and the Spot and the four moons.  He would tell you their names – “Io, Europa, Ganymede and Calisto” – and show you four dots of light surrounding a small dimly striped Jupiter where the Great Red Spot might be barely visible.

The more enthusiastic Nerd will have an even bigger telescope and will almost certainly show you Saturn.  He will twist your arm (literally, if necessary) to show you Saturn!  That is because Saturn is the stunning little toy in the eyepiece that everybody loves to see.  They might look at a picture made by a great observatory and appreciate it, but when they see it in a telescope with their own eye*, it is always a stunning epiphany.  Saturn’s largest moon Titan and a few of the smaller ones are visible in a large amateur ‘scope   About twenty years ago, I showed my mother Saturn and Titan, Rhea and Tethys.  It is a great lumbering 12 inch Dobsonian that has no clock drive to track the planet.  I had to constantly re-adjust the aim and then tell Mom, “Okay – look quick!” and duck out of her way.  She could glimpse Saturn for a scant few seconds until the Earth’s rotation took it out of view.  Then I would step back in to find it again, describe what to look for and where and jump back out of the way.  She was fairly impressed when I told her that very few people on Earth – one in many millions, perhaps – have personally looked through a telescope and seen these.

*With very few exceptions, telescopes are “monocular”.

The next two targets of Voyager Uranus and Neptune were – even with the best telescopes of the day – were still not much more than small indistinct discs of light.

GoingwalkaboutMorseI told you all that so I could tell you to see “The Farthest: Voyager in Space” on Netflix.

The Story of Voyager

The story begins with the engineers who built the thing.  Things, actually – there were two of them.  What they modestly describe is really a miracle of concentrated effort and talent, innovation and adaptation.  Those engineers and planetary scientists that participated in the effort are interviewed, but not in any simple question-and-answer format.  Rather, their responses are woven into the narrative to make a smoothly-flowing saga.

The tale continues. Once the craft were assembled and packaged on their rockets, they were summarily thrown off their native planet – never to return –  in dramatic, suspense-filled launches.

The spacecraft encountered, recorded and sent back to Earth discoveries that, on the one hand confirmed long-held ideas of the nature of the Solar System.  On the other hand, they relayed stunning new revelations that nobody – in their wildest dreams – had imagined could exist.

JupSatUraNep

Each planetary encounter at Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune -and the decisions and the problems – is chronicled and described by the people involved.  There is archival video from the encounter operations where you will recognize younger versions of the interviewees.  After Neptune, the continuing mission of the probes is described.  And all through the narrative, the sounds and pictures of the famous “golden record” (a Human message to the Universe) are heard and displayed.

Doubt me if you must, but this story is a compelling drama, complete with comedy, tragedy, euphoric glory and devastating failure. A well-written, well-produced timeless chronicle of a stunning achievement for all mankind.

This video has become my new “Saturn” moment.  I dragged (figuratively, figuratively!) my Wife to see it with me and she was fascinated by what she had never known.  I am working on appointments to watch it again with First and Second Sons.

Hasta Luego,

Steve

Changing Energy Use in The United States

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Steve Campbell           November 2015

Introduction

It is a habit of modern environmental advocates to insist upon doing away with fossil fuels and using only “renewable energy”. Fossil fuels are defined by as “a natural fuel such as coal or gas, formed in the geological past from the remains of living organisms.” (1). According to the US department of Energy, renewable energy includes “solar, wind, geothermal, bioenergy and water (hydroelectric)” (2).

If asked whether that replacement is possible or practical, most of those same environmental advocates (hereinafter referred to as: “Greens”) would enthusiastically reply in the positive, as if it is an obvious thing. It did not seem obvious to me and so I made an examination of modern energy use in the United States. At some point in the following pages, I will express a few opinions. But, I promise to end with some solidly founded conclusions.

The numbers

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory does a yearly assessment of energy use in the United States. It includes sources of energy, amounts of each source and what use is made of it by what sector of the economy. They publish a very interesting summary (3) of the results which you will see in Figure A. The amounts of energy are in Quadrillion British Thermal Units (which are mercifully referred to simply as “Quads”). A Quad is the equivalent of about 180 million barrels of petroleum. But, the important issue in this analysis is the portions that each source contributes to the total.

LivermoreUS_EnergyUse

Figure A: Energy Use in the United States 2014

Analysis

I will just look at the total energy use for this analysis. The numbers on the left side of the chart are detailed in the table in Figure B, below. The Non-renewables are in blue, the renewables in green. I have included Nuclear with the fossil fuels only because greens are as strongly opposed to that as they are to fossil fuels, if not more so. The table is depicted in a pie chart in figure C.

  EnergyUse2014Table  

Figure B: Energy sources and amount contributed to the total

EnergyUse2014Chart

Figure C: Pie chart of values in figure B, labeled by percent of total

The next pie chart in Figure D, has the fossil fuels and Nuclear plotted as blanks to show what needs to be replaced in the “total renewable” scenario. The result speaks for itself. Ninety percent of the current energy use is unacceptable to the Greens.

GreenEnergyComeUpShort

Figure D: The renewable fraction of US energy use in the US in 2014

So, we are left with these ten percent which must expand to fill 100 percent. The simple idea that we just multiply the capacity for each source by ten will quickly run into some serious problems. I will, of course elaborate upon them next by considering each source individually.

Biomass

Biomass in the transportation sector is mostly ethanol made almost exclusively from corn or biodiesel from other food crops like soybeans. Both are driving up the global price of food and are not profitable without government subsidies. I would just add that energy is used in growing crops, transportation to factories, fermentation, distillation and transportation of the biofuel to market (in tanker trucks because ethanol corrodes pipelines). Fertilizer is typically manufactured from natural gas. So, unless all that energy use is also converted to renewables, you have not accomplished much change.

According to the New England Complex Systems Institute (4):

“1. The amount of corn used to produce the ethanol in a gallon of regular gas would feed a person for a day,

  1. The production of ethanol requires so much fossil fuel energy that its energy benefit is only about 20%…
  2. The cost of gas made with ethanol is actually higher per mile because ethanol reduces gasoline’s energy per gallon…

The US used over 45% of its 2011 corn crop to produce ethanol, up from under 15% before 2005 …–a rise dictated by federal mandate and promoted by federal subsidies. The drought in 2012 is leading to questions about whether using corn for fuel is reasonable while people go hungry due to a world food shortage…

The total amount of ethanol produced in the US in 2011 was 13.95 billion gallons, enough to feed 570 million people that year.” (emphasis mine, SC)

I tried to check these numbers and I keep coming up with 535 million. Until I am able to resolve this difference, I will use the lesser figure. But the difference is small and number is still staggering.

In either case, that number was so staggeringly big that I reviewed the assumptions in the calculations in Albino, et al (4). There are a few mitigating factors. For one, the caloric requirements cited were the minimum for survival. Also, the field corn used for ethanol production is otherwise used for animal feed and for intermediate products like corn flour, meal, starch or oil. In all those cases, the food value ultimately is less than in direct consumption. Nevertheless, the 500+ million figure is still correct.  The potential use of the corn produced for fuel could supply that much food.

–—UPDATE May 14, 2021 —

A lot of greenies have tried to beat me up about the type of corn used for ethanol.  They say that Field Corn is not edible – and they are full of Bovine Sewage (BS).  Field corn is used for corn oil and corn sugar  (which makes ethanol) and corn meal.  But, let’s get to the core of this!

That LAND that is used to make ETHANOL could be used to feed ONE EIGHTH OF THE WORLD’S POPULATION!

THIS, THEY CANNOT DENY!

—–End Update—

As I mentioned previously, we are trying to imagine increasing by a factor of ten the portion of energy that is “renewable”. In the case of biofuels, to increase by ten times means that the United States alone would be burning enough food to feed over Five Billion People. That is more than two thirds of the Earth’s population. That is simply not acceptable.

You will note in Figure A that the majority of biomass contribution is not in transportation, but rather in Industry. The burning of agricultural and industrial waste for heat or to generate electricity is a good example. Imagine a sawmill that accumulates tons of sawdust. That waste represents a good deal of energy. You may note from Figure A that Industry is the most efficient of all energy using endeavors. They use biomass because it makes economic sense. I would imagine that most such opportunities are already in use. So, an increase by a factor of ten would seem impossible.

 Hydroelectricity

Hydroelectricity is quite efficient, clean and reliable. While it does require a specific sort of geological setting, it could probably be increased a great deal. A factor of ten might be possible, at least in theory. The problem with Hydro is that its Green “credentials” have expired. Greens are beginning to call for the removal of dams from rivers and are not enthusiastic about increasing hydropower. According to the Hydropower Reform Coalition (5):

“There is a place for new conventional hydropower development in our nation’s renewable energy policy, but such development should be limited to projects that use existing water and infrastructure and do not place additional stress on river ecosystems.”  

I can only imagine that they are expecting an improved efficiency from “existing water and infrastructure”. Without new infrastructure, there can be no other way to increase production. Figure E shows the Energy Information Agency (EIA) numbers for amount of hydropower in the US over the years 1990 to 2010. While other renewables have increased, Hydro is in a definite decline. Note that the increase of “other renewable” is about equal to the decline in Hydro. This is far from a candidate for a massive increase. We will be lucky to retain what Hydro now exists.

Hydrootherrenw

Figure E: EIA graph of hydropower and “other renewable” electricity amounts.

Wind

Wind turbines can generate substantial amounts of electricity when the wind conditions are right. Because of government subsidies, wind power has expanded rapidly. As of 2014 Wind represents 2% of the energy mix in the United States. There is room for expansion. However, as it turns out this is a much more complicated subject than the previous energy sources.

The cost of wind power has been claimed by Greens to be less than fossil fuel power plants. This claim is ignoring a multitude of hidden costs, including massive subsidies at taxpayer expense. According to Ed Hoskins’ detailed analysis (6), the cost of wind is at least double that of natural gas. The chart in figure F shows these figures and I have included the Solar photovoltaic numbers to refer back to when I get to that source.

Cost_Wind_Gas

Figure F: Comparison of cost per unit energy for Solar, Wind and Natural Gas electric generation

But the point here is not cost, but rather reliability. Wind turbines have a range of wind speeds. There is a lower limit of wind speed below which the turbine cannot generate power. There is also a high speed limit where the turbine must be “feathered” or turned sideways to the wind to avoid damage to the blades. When those periods occur, the electric demand must still be met and other sources must be called upon to provide the power. There are electric storage systems like flywheels that can store power and smooth fluctuations, but their capacity can be measured only in mere seconds. This means that a coal or natural gas fired power plant has to be kept idling, ready to pick up the entire load with a moment’s notice. Idling is a particularly wasteful thing to do as it burns energy for exactly nothing.

There is one argument to the effect that “It’s always windy somewhere”. By that they mean to say that one windfarm can take over for another. There are regional weather systems where stagnant (i.e., near windless) high pressure sets in across most of the country. This can be during a heat wave or a frigid cold wave where power consumption is already high. The fact that it is windy in Romania is irrelevant. There is no free lunch. Wind power must have a 100% back-up or leave its customers in the dark when the going gets tough.

Now we get to the carnage. These wind turbines are sited in zones of prevailing wind, which by no coincidence are the same zones where birds migrate. Windmills chop up birds at a horrifying rate. The Greens are trying to sandbag this by pointing out that cats kill far more birds than windmills. I expect they are exaggerating, but it does not matter. My cat, for example brought me a few mocking birds and, once a blue jay.  But he never dragged a Golden Eagle carcass up to my back door. Furthermore, nobody ever claimed that cats are “Green” as they have claimed about Wind for decades. Windmills do not discriminate and kill many thousands of birds of “endangered species” per year. Certainly they are endangered! Yet, Wind currently has a “Get Out of Jail Free Card” to do so for the next thirty years. They will not be fined.

Then there are the bats. For example, in Central Texas there are large populations of bats. Those flying rodents eat the insects that would otherwise eat our food (and Biomass!) crops. They are murdered by the thousands by the windmills there. You might think that their echo-locating senses would help them avoid the spinning blades. Well, they don’t even have to be struck by the blades. The low-pressure zones behind the blades collapse their lungs. Birds are much tougher, but they never see the blades coming, especially at night. The toll on bats is large – perhaps more than on birds.

While I would never be accused of being Green, I find the situation unacceptable and I object to these bird and bat choppers on environmental grounds. In my humble opinion, Wind ain’t Green. And Greens are starting to agree.   They forced a wind farm in California named Altamont tear down their windmills and replace them with larger ones that supposedly kill fewer. I suspect, but cannot prove that the larger mills just throw the dead birds farther away so they are out of sight and not counted as damage.

Solar

Solar energy is not a new idea. It has been exploited for longer than human history. I am sure that my Ice Age ancestors dried their meat with Solar. For local reference, my mother used Solar to dry our clothes when I was young. Later, I saw coffee farmers in Venezuela, who to this day use Solar to dry their beans. Solar is respected in architectural and industrial design. In remote locations photovoltaics if properly managed can provide electricity in medium amounts but not continuously.

There is nothing wrong with Solar until someone wants to make it a baseline electricity source. Now we are in trouble – and for obvious reasons! Beyond the totally obvious fact that the sun goes down at night, there are times when the weather will cover the sun and not provide power, neither for photovoltaic, nor for solar thermal plants. You might put these way out in the desert where there are few clouds, but then you must build the powerline infrastructure to get the power to someone who will pay for it. That is far from free.

Now is when I will ask you to look back at Figure F, at that Cyan bar that shows that “Photovoltaics Large Scale” is almost four times the cost of natural gas generation. Looking further than cost, there is reliability to be concerned. In the desert, there might not be much concern about sunlight, but even there, the sun goes down. Storage of electricity is to this day, quite difficult and inefficient. To put it like Tom and Ray Magliozzi (Car Talk) when they speak of electric cars, “It’s all about the batteries and it always will be”. You might imagine that Elon Musk will build all the batteries we need with his mega-plant. You would be wrong. There is a place called Cushing, Oklahoma where there is a great tank farm that is the core of the distribution center of petroleum for the central United States. The reserve of energy in Cushing is such that it would take FOURTY of Elon’s “Super Factories” ONE HUNDRED YEARS to match it in energy storage. Cushing is the largest tank farm in the country, but there are hundreds of others.

Geothermal

(Wikipedia (7)) Geothermal energy is thermal energy generated and stored in the Earth. Thermal energy is the energy that determines the temperature of matter. The geothermal energy of the Earth’s crust originates from the original formation of the planet and from radioactive decay of materials (in currently uncertain[1] but possibly roughly equal[2] proportions). The geothermal gradient, which is the difference in temperature between the core of the planet and its surface, drives a continuous conduction of thermal energy in the form of heat from the core to the surface. The adjective geothermal originates from the Greek roots γη (ge), meaning earth, and θερμος (thermos), meaning hot…. …Geothermal power is cost effective, reliable, sustainable, and environmentally friendly,[8] but has historically been limited to areas near tectonic plate boundaries.

Geothermal energy also works well, in appropriate locations. This is another source that could be expanded and maximized. In the US, it contributes 0.2 Quads (far less than 1 %) of the national total. While this analysis is about the United States Energy sector, it is instructive to note other countries’ efforts in this regard. While the US capacity is small, it still represents 29% of the Geothermal in the world! No one else comes close. Figure G (again from Wikipedia) shows the amounts and contributions of geothermal generation of various countries. Of particular note are Iceland, which supplies 30% of their national energy use and also the Philippines with 27% and El Salvador with 25%. These countries have the advantage of local geology that make Geothermal a convenient and cheap source of energy. The US has many such zones that have already been developed to some extent and there should be reason to expect more.

The drawbacks? Well, the first thing they do in geothermal development is to drill holes in the ground and then fracture the rock structure so the water can circulate and pick up heat. While I have no problem with fracturing, an entire radical, hysterical contingent of Greens do have such problems! If they will allow fracturing for geothermal then they are colossal hypocrites.

Geothermal

Figure G: Geothermal generation of electricity by country (Wikipedia)

Conclusions

  • Biofuels right now consume enough food crops to feed over half a billion people. That is astonishing in itself. To multiply this burning of food by ten is nothing short of horrifying. This nation should stop the use of ethanol based fuel immediately, in my humble opinion.
  • Hydro is being assassinated by Greens and will be fortunate to not decrease. It could otherwise be increased substantially.
  • Wind is not a good idea for baseline power. Any increase will come at great cost and massive loss of avian life. And again, it must be backed up with Real Energy.
  • Solar has many of the same drawbacks as Wind. Even if it does increase by ten times, it would still represent only about 4% of the energy total and it still needs 100% back-up.
  • I see no reason why Geothermal could not increase by a factor of ten. That would make it about two percent of the energy mix.
  • While I have skipped over it because it is opposed so vehemently by Greens, Nuclear could take the majority of the energy burden. Don’t hold your breath!

Question: Can Fossil Fuels be replaced?

Short answer:   No!

References:

  1. Defining “Fossil Fuel” http://www.bing.com/search?q=define+fossil+fuel&qs=n&form=QBLH&pq=define+fossil+fuel&sc=9-18&sp=-1&sk=&cvid=D3703532B4D94B9F8098F2638D006AED
  2. Defining “Renewable Energy” http://energy.gov/science-innovation/energy-sources/renewable-energy
  3. Lawrence Livermore Energy Use Chart https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/assets/images/energy/us/Energy_US_2014.png
  4. D.K. Albino, K.Z. Bertrand, Y. Bar-Yam, Food for fuel: The price of ethanol. arXiv:1210.6080(October 4, 2012). http://necsi.edu/research/social/foodprices/foodforfuel/ 
  5.  Hydropower reform Coalition hthttp://www.hydroreform.org/abouthydro/renewable
  6. Ed Hoskins WordPress.com site https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/
  7. Geothermal energy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothermal_energy

Five Decades, Five Comets

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 By Steve Campbell     Revised March, 2016

A few years ago, there was a comet (ISON) approaching the Earth.  It was discovered by two Russian astronomers, Vitali Nevski and Artyom Novichonok  by way of the International Scientific Optical Network (ISON, hence the name)  at the Kislovodsk Observatory. The comet was approaching from out by Jupiter and passed by the Sun in November and December of 2013.

A comet is composed of rock, dust and a lot of ice. As a comet approaches the sun, heat will vaporize ices in its body, creating a “tail”.  Figure 1 is an optimistic “artist’s conception” of what it was to look like from about October 2013 through January 2014.

ISON

Figure 1: Prediction for Comet ISON (optimistic)

What actually happened was much less spectacular and could only be appreciated in a telescope.  This is par for the course when it comes to comets in the popular media.  I remember Comet Kouhutek, which made its appearance in late 1973.  It too, was touted as the “Comet of the Century” and it failed miserably to satisfy that reputation.  As usual, your humble narrator and alleged “dinosaur” was there to see it in person.   I remember looking for it in the bitterly cold winter at Texas Tech University in Lubbock.   The spirit was willing, but the flesh (having been raised in a more nearly tropical Houston) was weak.  I never actually sighted it.

Kohutek

Figure 2:  Comet Kouhutek (telescope view)  1973

A “big deal” was also made about the return of Halley’s Comet, which is expected every 76 years.  I remember Halley’s return in 1986 and it was rather disappointing, as well.  The comet was visible only in a telescope (at least from Houston) and the weather in the area was absolutely dismal for observing at that time.

There was one highlight, though.   On a rare cloudless night, out at a State Park, some friends and I had the comet in my 3″ Edmund Scientific Co. reflector telescope.  A very old gentleman approached and asked if he could take a look.  Of course, we were proud to show off “our” comet.  After taking a good look, he told us that this was the second time around for him, having seen it in 1910. So, I reckon it was we who were lucky to see “his” comet!   He went on to tell us that it was a naked-eye object and quite breathtaking back then.  He thanked us for the view to which we, of course, bade him quite welcome.  We also pointed out some other amateur astronomers in the park, who had bigger and better ‘scopes and he wandered off in their direction.

Halleys

Figure 3:  Halley’s Comet 1986

Yet another comet story happened in 1997 with comet Hale-Bopp.  It was much more satisfying and was a naked-eye object for months.  I had taken my five year-old son out in the countryside, away from the city lights to get a good look at the comet.  We were way down a dark county road with little traffic, pulled off in a driveway to somebody’s ranch.  After a while, a bunch of motorcycles appeared and almost pulled in to where we were parked, but then went a bit further down the road – for a “biological break” as it turns out.  After that they seemed to discuss something and then motored back to where my son and I were observing the comet.

 

HaleBopp

Figure 4:  Comet Hale Bopp  1997

Now, I have had nothing but good experiences with motorcycle enthusiasts, myself.  My childhood neighbors were such people (“Speedy” and “Ruby” – no, really!).  Speedy gave me a recommendation that got me my first real job.

But, at this late hour and so far from “civilization”, I’ll admit, I was a bit nervous at this attention.  These were a club, with matching leathers and they introduced themselves – politely – and asked what I might be doing so far out in the country.  I explained about the comet and pointed it out to the group.  They asked a few questions about comets and such, which I was glad to answer.  My son, of course, was fascinated by the motorcycles and I told him to look all he wanted, but not to touch.  That is always good advice when looking at machines that are not only highly regarded by their owners, but also very hot in places.

The group started to depart, but one of them – the only woman in the group – stayed to talk briefly.  She told me that she had seen me, way out here with a little boy, and was concerned that something “creepy” might be going on, so she insisted that the others come back with her to investigate. Turns out, she’s a lawyer.  So, any image of a motorcycle gang intent on menace fades in the reality of a group of gentlemen – implored by a concerned lady and for the sake of a child – prepared to confront what might have been a despicable character.  My good opinion of motorcycle enthusiasts was reinforced.

You will notice in Figure 4, that Hale-Bopp apparently has two tails.  This is not uncommon and comes about because the gas released from the warming comet streams directly away from the Sun, while the dust, which is ionized, is affected by the Solar Magnetic field and rushes off in another direction.

Another “naked-eye” comet happened in 2007 and its name was Holmes.  This was a comet that had previously neared the Earth in 1892 and at one point underwent an eruption of activity that made a blue-green glow in the sky.  The same happened this time and was clearly “naked eye” visible even from my home in the glaring city light of Houston.  Many folks thought they had discovered a nova (exploding star) or a new planet. I was also able to present views through my 12 inch Newtonian reflector telescope (a far cry from the early days) to family and friends.  The cloud of gas and dust expanded to rival the size of the sun.

 Holmes

 Figure 5: Comet Holmes 2007

Here’s the deal about comets.  They exist out in an area called the “Oort Cloud” way beyond the outer limits of the solar system.  They are composed of ice and dust and for reasons not well known, they occasionally get diverted and sent toward the inner planets (Earth being one of same).   Some comets pass near planets, thus having their orbits altered and some get “captured” into an elongated orbit that brings them back around every so often.  Halley’s Comet, Comet Holmes and Hale Bopp are three of these.  Kouhutek and ISON are not, being one-time visitors to the Solar System.  Their trajectories will never return them to our neighborhood.

There is another aspect about comets that explains the inability to predict their precise paths around the sun.  As comets approach the sun –especially the one-time comets – they are warmed by solar radiation and begin to emit gas and dust.  That, of course is the stuff that makes up the comet “tail”.  But, that vaporization also acts like a rocket to change the orbit of the comet. How much the orbit is changed depends on the composition of the comet, of which we know little, especially for “new” Comets.  At least, that is until they start spewing out tail material, which can be analyzed by spectroscope.

There was yet another comet due in 2014.  Its name was Siding Spring, named after the observatory, not the discoverer.    It will be passing close to the planet Mars.  Very Close.  In fact, a collision with Mars was within the error bars for this encounter. Chances of collision are now being quoted as 1 in 600.  Mars is now being observed by two surface rovers and three orbiting spacecraft.

Update: The space probes did provide views of the comet’s close approach, but there was no collision.

This comet was estimated to be about 50 km in diameter and is traveling in a retrograde orbit – which means that it is coming in in the opposite direction of Mars’ orbit.  That would have maximized the impact velocity.  If had collided with Mars, the crater diameter would have been about 320 miles.

SLidingSpring

Figure 6:  Artist’s impression of the comet C/2013 A1 (Sliding Spring) striking Mars. (I hasten to remind the reader that it never did this!)

Ex Scientia, Veritas

  Steve Campbell

 

 

The Eclipse Expedition

 

SteveTrucker2  Homepage   DreamVacations

Road Ranger Truck Stop, Rochelle, Illinois July 29, 2017

I apologize that I  have been extremely busy with the “task-at-hand” of interstate logistics operations and have not written in a while.  In what few spare moments I have had, there have  also been thoughts and effort put into preparation for my first break in two months, planned for August 19 through the 25th.  I regret that I will not be in Houston at that time to visit with those of my readers who abide there.  Instead, yet more traveling lies in wait.  Fortunately, the First Mate will be joining me.  It took a lot of convincing to get her to agree to a long road trip, with few comforts.  So, for those of you who see here often – just make like it’s a Big Deal that you would love to have the opportunity to attend, OK? 😉

LuluCover

Captain Walkabout’s First Mate

I have been fascinated by Astronomy from an early age.  In the early Sixties, the library at Louisa May Alcott Elementary School was my first source of literature about stars and planets. In 1980 I graduated from the University of Texas with a Bachelor’s Degree in Astronomy.  In between, I read most everything I could find on the subject.

While Stars had their own fascination, I desired nothing more than to study the Solar System Planets.  I had wanted to be Carl Sagan – but they already had one.  By the time there was an opening in the position, that energetic upstart (and admittedly, talented) Neil DeGrass Tyson beat me to the job.

As I have discussed elsewhere, my career was to be in Geophysics. I remind you that it is still the study of Planets.  We just happen to be standing on the planet I studied for all those years.  I was fortunate to attend the Lunar and Planetary Science Conference for many years on behalf PGS of my seismic exploration company employer.   I will admit, it took some considerable lobbying on my part to get them to sponsor me.  Even then, I took vacation time and paid my own room and board.

This narrative reminds me that I wrote an article for the PGS newsletter about comets.  I will post that here, soon.

Solar Eclipses

One of the first things a student learns about is eclipses, when the shadow of the moon falls upon the Earth and covers the Sun completely.  This happens roughly every 18 months – somewhere on Earth.

“So, what’s the big deal?”, You may ask.

The opportunity to witness a total solar eclipse is a rare only because the shadow falls on a very small fraction of the Earth’s surface and you have to be there to see it happen.  Most people live their entire lives without witnessing such an event.  I know, because I am one.  There was a total eclipse across the Norther parts of the US in 1979 that I missed because I had injured my back at work and I did not have any vacation time to spare.  Seeing TV coverage (while muscle-relaxed in a recliner) on TV just ain’t the same.  All the people in the live broadcast were gasping and shouting in delight.  What inspired those reactions simply did not make it through the screen.  Apparently, you have to be there – in person.

There is an opportunity in the US to view such an eclipse August 21, 2017.  As the Earth rotates under the moons shadow it make a “path of totality.  The link below is to a short video of this  celestial situation:

https://youtu.be/lF5QlckmZhs

The path can be shown on a map.   You will see such a graphic below.

Totality_wholeUSPath of Totality for the August 21 Solar Eclipse.

Inside the shaded path, the Sun winds up completely covered.  The black dot over by Nashville is where the totality happens at local noon.  The center of the  path – marked with a blue line – is where the time of totality is at a maximum of about two and a half minutes.  Away from the blue line but still in the shaded zone, the totality is briefer.  For viewers anywhere outside this path, there is only a partial eclipse – a bit of full sunlight will still be about.

I can’t tell you much about totality, because I have never seen it.  But I have been near partial eclipses.  The dim light is perceptible but not like an overcast day, in fact the shadows are sharper and more distinct.  There is an eerie quality to the light that I cannot quite describe –  not just in the sky, but reflected by everything around you.  Any viewing of the Sun itself must be through protective glasses.  Regular sunglasses are inadequate.  Special “eclipse glasses” are available for purchase and advertised everywhere.  Here is the key to their use:

Never look directly at the sun without the Eclipse Glasses on.  Look away from the Sun, put the glasses on then look at the partial eclipse.  This condition is described as FILTERS ON.

For totality, I have only what I have read.  There should be an effect of bands of dark and light caused by interference fringes as the Sun becomes a sliver at the edge of the Moon. Just at the beginning of totality, there is an effect called “Baily’s Beads” around the edges of the moon where remnants of the now dwindled light from the Sun is shining down through valleys on the edge of the moon.  This will become a “Diamond Ring” with a single bright spot.  It is after this event that the eclipse can be viewed with the naked eye.  Not BEFORE and not AFTER totality.  The same applies to cameras!

EclipseDIamondRing

They tell me that at totality, planets will become visible in what had been the daytime sky.  Mercury, Venus, Mars and Jupiter should be there to see, if you know where to look.  The Sun’s atmosphere, the “Corona” is obvious and extensive.  The local wildlife (as well as the local people) will have strange reactions to the sudden darkness. The darkness is local.  Will I see a reddened horizon by the light from beyond totality?  I simply don’t know.

Descriptions and pictures here:

https://eclipse.aas.org/eclipse-america/eclipse-experience

 

So – BEFORE totality:

FILTERS ON

Partial eclipse views

Bailey’s Beads

Diamond Ring

TOTALITY – FILTERS OFF

Views and photos of Sun’s Corona behind the full moon

Planets in the daytime sky

Interference fringes

Red horizon?

Animal / Human Reactions.  Temperature. Wind.

First sign of Diamond Ring returning

FILTERS ON

Reverse sequence

I said it is not like an overcast day.  That is, of course unless it IS an overcast day.  The weather is the main problem associated with eclipse viewing.  Weather is what makes this a moving target.  Statistically, the fewest cloudy days are to be found in Nebraska and Wyoming portion of the path and that is where we should aim.  I had it in mind to start straight North from Dallas to Kansas City.  But, now I think it might be better to head for that stretch of Interstate 27 in Wyoming that I have had my eye on.

EclipseDallas-to-CasperWYShade.pngThe route to Wyoming and Totality – to be followed by Your Captain and the First Mate

It might be a crowd scene.  People will be coming from all over the world to see this, but there is also a relatively large area where it will be visible and I would think that the crowds would be in the more urban areas. I don’t really know what to expect in that regard.

I will write about it, of course.

Ex Scientia, Veritas

Steve

Three Hundred Graphs say “Global Warming” is Bogus

 SteveTrucker2  Homepage   DreamVacations

   A recent article at Climate Depot has painstakingly assembled almost 300 graphs from Peer-reviewed scientific research that disprove the Man-made Global Warming Myth.   Click the following link:

Three Hundred Graphs

   Climate Depot is a project of the Center For A Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT) and is edited by Marc Morano, a steadfast Champion of the Truth about the Climate Change Myth.  I saw him and many other respected authorities speak at a Conference in Houston. My attendance there was a part of my multi-decade research of this subject.  I introduced myself and briefly encouraged Marc to seek out and inform Texas Governor Rick Perry who was also there. 

  http://www.climatedepot.com/

   I mention this not to brag – but only to impress my audience that I am not just repeating talking points like Al Gore, but rather I have been actively involved in research and discussion about this.

Ex Scientia, Veritas

Steve